Wednesday, August 15, 2007

The FED and PPT Throw in the Towel!

We have just bounced off the shadowtrader's S4 pivot, last line of defense, and made new lows at 1415.50.
The question is, What now? I think we will at least hit 12,600 Dow, a 10% correction off the 14,000 high.
Not a cataclysm. A 10% correction is sometimes considered healthy. It is the manner in which this has borne out. Pretty much of a free fall lately with no bounce. Lots of intervention by the FED and PPT to no avail. Why? Because the mortgage companies and the hedge funds that deal in the sub-prime market have no way of valuing their inventory of securities. I have traded in 3 crash scenarios, in extreme volatility. I HAVE NEVER HEARD, "we have no way of valuing these securities". If you feel comfortable trading in this market. Widen out your stops, trade with the trend and make a fortune. For those of you that don't, my friend Scott Macbeth has a conservative consistent options trade for you. Check it out! Here is Scott's message:

Good Morning George,
Thanks for inviting me into your blog. My strategy is great for people who want an EASY, (do exactly what I say), ( and all these words are going to sound counterintuitive, but amazingly they're true, and people don't believe it until they spread trade for a while), BORING, (set 'em and forget 'em for 30 days), SAFE, ( statistics, like from the CBOE, show that some 80 plus percent of all options written or bought expire worthless), CONSERVATIVE, ( oh yes, it's conservative, I'm actually a VERY conservative guy, I'm a Macbeth, I'm Scottish, I HATE TO LOSE MONEY) we are the house in Vegas, we take the money and we have the ODDS and PROBABILITIES on our side. Wake up & GET IT?. Do you think for one second that the owners of the casinos are gambling or do you think they are conservative business men? AND I offer monthly liquidity. No long term contracts. The money is and always will be your's . I don't touch it. I'm not "selling " you anything.. I'm simply revealing what I and 1000's of other professional floor traders, hedgers and big money , smart money types have been doing for decades. Bank of America made $460 million last year on spread and hedge trading. ( how's their return on your CD money)? The teach Spread Trading as an advanced graduate course at the Wharton School of Finance at Penn. Get the easy details of how to get started for the price of a round of golf... $79./month paypal only to http://mail.shadowtraders.com/cgi-bin/webmail/login/gfushi@shadowtraders.com/D495478143066B16A957EFDAF2A68343/1187207392?folder=INBOX&form=newmsg&to=rsmacbeth@gmail.com. Doesn't work? (impossible, I've been doing it for my Family's money for 4 years, consistently). You don't like it? Stop at anytime. You don't understand it... ? You get total hand holding personally from me, each and every step of the way through the order entry process, and any and all questions you may have will be answered by me and you talking on my cell phone. I do require you to have $10,000. minimum in a Trade King online account. Write me with your email address for exact instructions for opening an account with them. They are the cheapest and the best for type of advanced options income. Next trade alert coming up on Aug20th. Monthly after that. I am 8 for 8 this year. (wins since Jan 07.) and 11 for 12 in '06. Total return so far in '07, $3600. per $10,000 account. (36% or 4.5% a month). email me with any questions and thanks George Fushi because you have an ABSOLUTE WINNING STRATEGY also, Well researched , well documented, well supported and YOUR SYSTEM WORKS , for making big money , fast. I'm the system people need to provide them income.
All the Best,
Scott Macbeth
http://mail.shadowtraders.com/cgi-bin/webmail/login/gfushi@shadowtraders.com/D495478143066B16A957EFDAF2A68343/1187207392?folder=INBOX&form=newmsg&to=rsmacbeth@gmail.com

Tuesday, August 14, 2007

Subprime and Leverage in Hedge Funds

Just When you thought it was safe to get back in the water............

Goldman Sachs poured $2 billion into one of it's own funds in order to support it and stabilize the markets. They also held a conference call concerning the above. a desperate move to support these markets. They probably did so at the request of Hank Paulson ,their former chief and the current chief of the U.S. Treasury. Hank and the PPT were in all day yesterday, trying to support the market. I don't have a technical indicator for this one but when you have GS, the FED ( adding $40 billion in liquidity in the markets last friday) and the PPT working on it and you still can't muster an up-day-that is pretty negative.
They keep telling us, everyday that subprime losses are contained and that hedge fund problems are over- but then by the end of the day another mortgage company is going bankrupt and more funds are in trouble.These are the current headlines from Bloomberg. I did not see one positive headline, yet S&P's are up 3 points currently.....?

UBS Falls as Market `Turbulence' Threatens Profit
UBS pre-market trading- 52.68, down 1.41, below its 52 week low

Wal-Mart Posts Profit Below Estimates, Cuts Forecast
WMT pre-market trading- 44.60, down 1.57, below it's 52 week low

Home Depot Net Income Falls 15% on U.S. Housing Slump
HD pre-market-trading- 35.55, up .31, .40 above it's 52 weeek low

Citigroup May Lose $3 Billion on Subprime, LBOs, Bernstein Says
C no pre-market trading

Today's News Releases:
8:30 am June Trade Balance (last-$60 billion), July PPI (last -.2%)
8:55 am Redbook Retail Sales(last +3.2%)

Important earnings: WMT, HD, TJX- see above.

With so much bad news it is had to get positive for a bounce of these current levels but I assume the PPT, FED, GS and other huge institutions will give it all they got! Try clear trades when they are taking them higher and if we break current levels get you short selling hat on!